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The purple potential of Virginia
Posted June 11, 2008 at 12:57 PM

Although the Democratic and Republican primaries are now over, Virginia will likely enjoy a great deal of attention from the presumptive nominees of both parties in the months before the general election. With the opportunity to now focus on the general election and his rival Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) has set his sights on states which are being considered “purple” in the general election. A purple state is one which is considered to be up for grabs for both the Democratic and Republican parties; and could vote either way. Also termed “battleground states” and “swing states”, Virginia will likely be one of the most sought-after purple states for the upcoming election in November.

 

Sen. Obama signaled his intent to engage in the battle for Virginia voters last Thursday when he visited, for the first time in his campaign, Southwest Virginia; holding a town hall-style meeting at Virginia High School in Bristol, Virginia. It was a bold and important move for the Senator who, despite winning an overwhelming majority in Virginia’s Democratic primary, had lost Bristol and the rest of Southwest Virginia to Sen. Clinton by a near two-to-one margin. By making Southwest Virginia his first stop as the presumptive nominee the Illinois senator is sending a clear message to Sen. John McCain that he has every intention of bringing change to a state which hasn’t voted for a Democrat since former president Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

 

While it is unlikely that the Democratic senator will be able to steal this deeply red area of the state from John McCain, it is necessary for him to sway some votes his way if he hopes to carry the state in November. Back in February Obama won a large majority of Virginia primary voters by capturing the favor of those who lived in Northern Virginia. The senator’s success in Northern VA has a great deal to do with the demographics of the region. Northern VA has a much lower median age than Southwest VA, and Sen. Obama carried young people those aged 17 to 29 by a 50 point margin. 93 percent of black men and 85 percent of black women voted for Sen. Obama most of whom live in the Northern VA region. He is also more popular with wealthy voters and voters who are college educated. Wealth and education are both much more largely represented in Northern VA than Southwest VA. Nevertheless, political pundits like the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato don’t think Obama’s popularity in Northern Virginia will be enough if Sen. McCain carries Southwest Virginia by a landslide. Sabato said during a telephone interview with theBristol Herald Courierthat “If Obama is going to carry Virginia, he must reduce John McCain’s majority in Southwest Virginia…Everyone knows McCain will carry Southwest Virginia handily. But if he [McCain] wins in a landslide in Southwest Virginia, it could negate Obama’s gains in Northern Virginia and in other places.”


 
 
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Tags: election  Virginia  obama  McCain  general election  MTV: Street Team '08  purple  Sabato 
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