The State of Indiana hasn’t voted for a Republican since a guy named Cassius Clay first shocked the world and some band named the Beatles dropped their first US record. But many prognosticators are starting to believe that Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama may be able to write a worthy sequel to Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 Indiana victory.
Sure, Indiana is a state that bleeds red and not just on the electoral map. Even the beloved Hoosiers wear deep crimson jerseys. So why do so many people think Obama has a shot?
First and foremost the timing seems right. American’s are unhappy with the current political situation and that favors the party that doesn’t hold daily briefings in a certain house on Pennsylvania Avenue. An unpopular war is dragging on while the country continues to examine issues of race and gender that the primary campaign brought forward. Sounds a little like a decade mentioned above.
But there’s more encouraging news for Barack and co. State Democrats have made gains in recent congressional elections and new voters are registering as Democrats. Obama even has the option of selecting Indiana’s native son Evan Bayh as his Vice Presidential candidate.
So it’s not all too surprising that the Democratic leader has decided to spend a considerable amount of money convincing Hoosiers to vote for him. His campaign has already started airing commercials in the states metropolitan areas and has even opened four field offices. That number is soon expected to reach over 20. All this before John McCain has had the chance to introduce himself to Hoosiers let alone set up an office in downtown Indy.
Some see Obama‘s push as a strategic move forcing McCain to spend hard earned dollars in a state that will ultimately vote Republican. This notion certainly seems plausible. If Obama can make Indiana seem the least bit competitive then a cash starved McCain will be forced to waste time, energy, and money that could be better spent else ware.
However, such strategic arguments may fail to fully recognize the full tide of Obama’s rising Indiana fortunes. His campaign potentially has two “wildcards” that could conceivably propel him to victory. The first being Obama’s Chicago roots. Indiana’s Northern tip resides firmly in the grasp of Chicago’s media market so many upstate voters are familiar with the Obama brand.
Ultimately, his most potent weapon may prove to be the youth vote. For the first time ever polling organizations are starting to recognize Americans between the ages of 18-35 as a significant voting bloc. Perhaps, Indiana is a state where this development will have a notable impact on Obama’s presidential aspirations. Several of the state’s most influential counties include cities (Bloomington, South Bend, Lafeyette…) that are traditional mid west college towns. If youth voter turnout is high their impact could be exponential.
Surely, Obama will face challenges in Indiana. The May primary was a bloody affair and his campaign will have to work hard to win over some of Hillary Clinton’s disillusioned supporters. It will also have to counter the McCain camps claims that Obama is nothing but a traditional liberal hiding beneath a progressive’s cloak.
But if there’s anything that the primary campaign taught pundits and casual observers alike it’s that Indiana is certainly capable of producing a nail-bitter. If Obama and McCain are deadlocked as the final votes are counted on November 4th don’t be too surprised. Hoosier Nation could be headed for a historically close election. That would be some pretty heavy drama indeed.