So many of you may remember my blog from this spring, titled – duh – “Fun With Math,” where I accurately predicted Barack Obama’s win over Hillary Clinton about a month and a half before the primary contest ended, using strict voting and polling trends as my guide.
Now that the final presidential debate is over and John McCain and Barack Obama have hit the home stretch in stride, the last 19 days of the race will depend exclusively on math. This may sound uninteresting, but in some way, the math of each candidate’s advertising budgets, the math of Electoral College votes and the math of poll trends will determine who is the next president of the United States of America.
I watched the debate at a watch party hosted by the Washington State University Young Democrats, a party offered to the members of University of Idaho Students for Obama. Chelsea Tremblay, host and president of WSU Young Democrats, had some thoughts after the debate wrapped up.
“John McCain seems to be going closer to the fringe of his party,” Tremblay said. “He has his base; I didn’t see him reach out to Independents.”
Tremblay said McCain didn’t do much to speak to the college students at the watch party, while she liked Obama’s points on education policy.
“I wasn’t aware of his adviser’s comments about education being a special interest,” she said. “This is something he’s never had to worry about because of his family’s wealth. Meaghan McCain won’t ever have to worry about the cost of her education. [John] McCain is simply out of touch with our generation.”
According to immediate polls taken after the debate, some scientifically valid and some not, Obama was the clear winner. CBS News’ poll had Obama winning by a 60+ percent margin, while CNN and MSNBC had closer results, though both still put Obama in the winning seat by 20+ percent margins. So without the illusive “knockout blow,” and without the electoral math gears working in McCain’s favor, I’m forced to make a prediction with just over two weeks to go till the election.
I assert that, barring some freakish scandal (and I mean like “Obama is a serial killer” scandal), John McCain will not be the 44th president of the United States.
Again, like way back in March, this may hurt and/or sting a little, and judging by some of the audiences at McCain events as of late, it may even enrage you (and I should probably consider putting better locks on my windows). However, I’m quite sure of this, as I was quite sure of Obama’s chances this past March, and if you doubt that, please go back and reread Fun with Math part one. I not only accurately predicted his win, and I not only accurately predicted which remaining contests he would win (save South Dakota, those wily whippersnappers!) but I even predicted his precise margin of victory in three out of four states – North Carolina, Oregon and Mississippi. South Dakota was…well we won’t talk about South Dakota. I never liked Mount Rushmore anyway!
While this is not as cut and dried as it was this spring, mainly since delegates were getting locked up in the process and electoral votes cannot be locked up until November 4, the math is still as reliable as it was back then.
What we’ve got right now is a situation where John McCain is playing defense in Virginia (hasn’t voted Democrat since Idaho did – 1964 for Lyndon Johnson) and North Carolina (hasn’t voted Democrat since 1976 Jimmy Carter, then a neighboring governor), while trying to play offense in only two states Kerry won in 2004 – New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Unfortunately for McCain, Obama is currently leading in the polls in Virginia (Obama +8.6 percent in the RealClearPolitics average) and in North Carolina (+1.2 percent) and is cruising to what should be massive wins in McCain’s two best chances (Obama +13.8 in Pennsylvania and +10.4 in New Hampshire).
Even worse is that McCain’s two best chances equal 25 electoral votes, while Obama’s two states are worth 28 electoral votes. On top of attacking just two Kerry states, McCain is defending a whopping 13 Bush states – here we go – Ohio, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada, West Virginia and Georgia. Combining his potential gains and losses, +45 and -193, McCain is fighting for a net -148 EVs … not a good place for anyone with less than three weeks until the election (not to mention a massive financial disadvantage). He will have to win an entirely disproportionate portion of the toss-up EVs just to have a shot at the White House, and recent polls are not supporting this path.
But this is just a glimpse of the race this week, and it does not include the 2004 Bush states Obama is almost certain to win. Latest polls have Obama in solid positions in all of the following “red” states – Iowa, Nevada, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio and Florida – 84 votes. He’s also competitive in recent polls in Indiana, Georgia, West Virginia and North Dakota – another 34 votes.
All told, Obama is gunning for a total of 146 electoral votes entirely from Bush states, while McCain is gunning for … uh … 25 votes from Kerry states. Even including Minnesota and Wisconsin, two blue states where McCain still campaigns periodically (but has virtually no chance of winning – Minnesota went for Mondale, Dukakis, Clinton, Gore and Kerry, while Wisconsin went for Clinton, Gore and Kerry. Obama also won both states quite handily over Hillary Clinton, proof he has a strong core there), McCain is aiming at 45 Kerry electoral votes, still 101 shy of Obama’s massive target. And he’s significantly down in the polls in all of these Kerry states and few major pundits and strategists predict he’s got a chance to pick up even one of them.
What this leads us to is a situation where Obama has almost countless paths to the White House, while McCain has extremely limited options. Statistically speaking, for McCain to win, he cannot lose Ohio (Obama +3.4 percent) or Florida (Obama +4.8 percent), much less Virginia or North Carolina. He must also find ways to hold at least Colorado and Nevada, accepting that New Mexico (Obama +8.4 percent) is a lost cause. Essentially the only clear path McCain has to the White House is to take back every Bush state but Iowa and New Mexico – both appear to be a lost cause – and find ways to simply hold the front line. This would give him 274 electoral votes, just enough to win the election.
Obama, on the other hand, needs to hold the Kerry states and then can simply win any two of the following states: Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, or Florida.
Going even further, assuming Obama holds Kerry states and takes Iowa and New Mexico (over the past year, no RCP average has ever showed McCain leading in New Mexico and no single poll has ever showed McCain leading in Iowa), he only needs one of the above seven toss-up states to take the White House. The nail in the coffin, though, is that Obama leads in the polls in five of these states, including the two largest (Ohio and Florida) and two of the reddest (Virginia and North Carolina).
Adding to McCain’s already crippling math equation is the fact that Obama is commanding a sizeable lead in most swing state polls this week, and this lead overlaps with early voting in many states, including Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina.
This spells serious trouble for McCain, as many of the remaining states have blue-collar economies and aging populations, two core voting blocs most dramatically affected by the plummeting economy. Florida is packed with retirement-concerned 60+ senior citizens, a voting bloc Obama is winning in the latest Research 2000 Florida poll – a stunning reversal from voting trends earlier this year. West Virginia and Pennsylvania also have aging populations combined with blue collar economies, and Virginia and North Carolina are dense with both African American and upscale white voters – blocs Obama has been winning handily since his primary contest against Hillary Clinton.
(All numbers, statistics, electoral vote counts and historical voting records were taken from www.realclearpolitics.com)