George W. Bush’s approval rating in Idaho, a state where he won 69-30 percent over John Kerry just three years ago, has now plummeted to a dismal 43 percent, according to a Research 2000 poll taken July 28-30.  After parsing the down-poll numbers, it appears that Idaho, once one of Bush’s most loyal states, is now a complete toss-up at all levels.  John McCain is netting only 53 percent of the state’s support, and leading GOP Senate candidate Jim Risch garners only 42 percent.

At the Senate level, Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is leading LaRocco 42-32, with Independent Rex Rammell pulling 5 percent of the vote and a stunning 17 percent undecided.  In a state that usually provides Republican candidates 30-40 point win margins, the undecided vote and the 4.5 percent margin of error means nothing is a safe bet for Idaho’s red-collar politicians.

“An impressive fact from the poll was that 17 percent were undecided― which is good for LaRocco, who is winning independents, and a critical blow to the Risch campaign, especially when you factor in that 55 percent of those polled either disapproved of him or did not recognize his name,” wrote LaRocco’s campaign in a recent press release.

Risch said he’s not particularly concerned about the Rex Rammell factor.

“Our campaign is not focused on other individuals,” Risch said.  “In every political race there is a hodgepodge of third party or independent candidates that garner a small segment of the vote, this case is no different.  What I can tell you is that I am not seeing ‘disaffected Republicans’ as I campaign.  In fact right now Republicans are more motivated than I have seen in some time and they are eager to elect good candidates that share their values as I do.”

A historical view of the Risch v. LaRocco battle can provide a bit more context, since this will be the third time these two politicians have faced off.  In 2006, the two competed for Lieutenant Governor, with Risch taking the win 58-39 percent.  A poll taken a year later had Risch’s approval rating dropping a heavy 10 percent, while LaRocco’s rating dropped 5 points to 34 percent, according to a Myers Research and Strategic Services poll.

Six months later, in a wider-reaching poll by the Lake Research Partners for Larry LaRocco, Risch’s rating dropped to 43 percent, with LaRocco carrying 28 percent support and 18 percent reporting undecided.  Rex Rammell checked in with 6 percent support.  

A deeper reading into the poll also supports the trend I reported on two weeks ago, where white Democrats in states with large black populations had difficulty supporting Barack Obama for president, while the opposite also held true.  Obama has the support of 85 percent of Idaho’s Democrats.  McCain has the support of 79 percent of Idaho’s Republicans, but trouble may be brewing for the Idaho GOP in the Independent vote, which supports LaRocco 38-35 and Obama 48-44.  Both margins are well within the margin of error, but as an Independent in Idaho is akin to a conservative Republican in more liberal states like New York or Connecticut, such a lack of support from Idaho’s right-leaning moderates is a serious trouble sign for the GOP come November.

Risch’s campaign said they aren’t concerned about McCain’s popularity in the state and that they are looking to win regardless of national politics.

“The national political environment changes every day, if not every hour,” Risch said.  “What I can count on is that I have the right message and the leadership that Idahoans are hungry for.  Issues such as high fuel prices, taxes that are too high and an economy that needs serious attention are all things that I am prepared to take on and deliver results.  I have tackled big issues before and I can do it again."