Things just don’t seem to be looking up for Idaho’s Republican Party and their leading Senate candidate, Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch.
First, there was Obamamania. Idaho’s depressed Democrats rallied to the first Democratic presidential candidate to visit the state in decades, giving him a stunning victory on Super Tuesday and continuing to turn out high volumes of volunteers and huge events, most popping at the seams.
Then Risch had to fight off seven other Republican candidates seeking to nab the nomination, although he succeeded and won the nomination with 65 percent of the vote.
If that wasn’t enough drama for the Idaho Republican, now he is finding himself fighting off criticism from a disgruntled former Republican, Rex Rammell, who is still angry about a decision Risch made regarding Rammell’s elk farm several years ago – Rammell’s elk escaped and Risch ordered them all slaughtered to avoid any biological contamination of the wild elk in the area. Rammell took it personally and is now running as an Independent, causing enough grief to get a mention in a recent Wall Street Journal article highlighting speed bumps for Risch heading to November.
Also impeding Risch’s ability to gain momentum is the absence of a McCain presence in the state.
“I have tried to find out who was head of the McCain campaign in Idaho, and I’ve never seen anybody named in that position,” said Larry LaRocco, Risch’s Democratic rival. “Obama is going to run a 50-state strategy, meaning Idaho isn’t going to be a flyover state anymore. I think that’s favorable to Democrats.”
Finally, on May 27, Idaho’s Republicans gave Ron Paul 25 percent of the vote, even though his campaign had been mostly inactive for months. This didn’t seem like a problem for Risch, until those voters took their enthusiasm to the Idaho State GOP Convention two weeks ago, where the more moderate state party chair, Kirk Sullivan, was ousted in favor of a socially conservative, small government Ron Paul supporter, Norm Semanko.
To add fault to fracture, Semanko was endorsed by Bill Sali, Idaho’s freshman U.S. Representative, as well as Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Luna, while Sullivan was endorsed by the state’s governor, C.L. “Butch” Otter, a close friend of Risch. Risch did not endorse either candidate in the race.
LaRocco said the Idaho’s GOP problems will make unifying the party before November especially difficult.
“No party wants to go into a general election in a dysfunctional state, and they’re at the height of it,” LaRocco said. “I don’t know if Semanko can pull the party together, it’s like he’s going to be trying to push a rope up a wall.”
Risch is now faced with a new Idaho Republican Party and a new chairman, both now adopting deeply conservative stances on many social and fiscal issues. Semanko and the Idaho Republican Party now officially endorse the abolition of the Federal Reserve System, while other groups within the party are pushing for closed primaries, the elimination of no-fault divorces, the legalization of marijuana and the abolition of abortion in the state. Semanko is now charged with unifying the Idaho Republican Party, which is now part Ron Paul libertarians, part social conservatives and part marijuana advocates.
“I think my chances are improved for lots of reasons,” LaRocco said. “The energy at the Democratic caucuses was tremendous. My strategy has really locked in with people, and the entry of Rex Rammell as an independent candidate all bodes well with me. There are many circumstances that are falling our way, and now with the train wreck that happened [at the convention], that furthers my chances.”
While all of these things are only tangentially related to Jim Risch’s attempt to win the U.S. Senate seat this November, he’s facing stiff competition from LaRocco, who has spent the past month working day jobs with voters, speaking at nine different town hall meetings and making appearances with other high-level Obama supporters in the state. Risch, on the other hand, has had a relatively quiet summer and isn’t doing much to rally voters to his cause.
For example, LaRocco has held nine events since the nomination process, beginning with a “Rockin’ with LaRocco” concert in Boise’s popular downtown Basque block.
Risch has made some public appearances, but has been accused by the LaRocco campaign of not caring about Idaho voters because of his refusal to participate in debates and make more appearances before Idaho’s voters.
As Idaho is seen as solidly red and this Senate seat is not considered at risk by any national pollsters or political journalists, Risch has likely been quiet this summer simply because he doesn’t see a need to campaign in a state that hasn’t had a Democratic Senator for decades and hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
On the popular social networking sites Myspace and Facebook, LaRocco has 254 and 140 friends, respectively, while Risch has 58 Facebook supporters, but does not have an active Myspace profile. At the same time, in the past month the Risch campaign has sent out only one email (celebrating his nomination win) while LaRocco’s campaign is extremely active, sending out email updates on an almost daily basis. The emails range from campaign updates to scathing critiques of the Risch campaign, although the critiques go largely unanswered.
“I think there’s a huge opening for us,” LaRocco said. “More and more people are identifying themselves as independents and Democrats in Idaho. The Republicans peaked, and Bush’s unpopularity in the state and now their surge to the right is not good news for them – but it is good news for me.”
NOTE: The Risch campaign was not available for comment on this article. When I called the two campaigns, Larry LaRocco personally returned my call in 15 minutes. The Risch campaign volunteer I spoke with chuckled when I asked if Jim was available, and responded, simply, “no.”