Idaho held its highly-publicized primary last night with John McCain and Barack Obama winning the Republican and Democratic primaries, respectively. However, an interesting side story has begun to unfold with most of the polling in the Mountain States completed.

The underlying headline after Idaho’s primary was that Representative Ron Paul finished with a stunning 25 percent of the vote. He also scored that back on Super Tuesday (Feb 5) at Montana’s Republican Caucus, actually placing ahead of Senator John McCain (though the state was won by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney). Rep. Paul also outvoted Sen. McCain in Nevada despite, again, falling to Romney. In Colorado, Wyoming and Utah, Paul ran competitively behind the two. 

In fact, Arizona is the only Mountain State that McCain has won – not surprising, considering he’s a Senator there.

Senator Hillary Clinton has also had mixed results in the region. She earned narrow wins in Nevada and New Mexico, though faced huge losses in Utah, Wyoming, Colorado and Idaho and another gaping loss is expected in Montana next week. Conversely, Senator Barack Obama has shown extreme strength here. According to polls results, his popularity has expanded beyond the Mountain region and into North Dakota, Washington, Oregon, Kansas and Nebraska. If reports are accurate, he’s also likely to win in South Dakota next week. 

So what does this mean for McCain? This might wind up becoming a perfect political storm – Obama’s strength, Paul’s anti-war support and a seeming lack of enthusiasm for McCain.

Paul’s strength in the Mountain States would likely be surmountable for McCain if not for one factor – Paul’s supporters are against the war. If it were any other candidate taking votes from McCain in these states it would be easy to overlook, but as Paul is probably the most anti-war candidate next to Dennis Kucinich and Obama, this spells serious trouble for McCain.

If Mountain State Republican anti-war voters do not support McCain in November, some traditional Red States could become available for Obama. These include Montana, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado and even some states outside of the region including North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas. 

“I will not be supporting John McCain,” said Clay Mosman, an 18-year-old Republican from northern Idaho who is an ardent Ron Paul supporter. Mosman said his support for Paul is influenced heavily by Paul’s anti-war stance.

J.D. Hop, a former field organizer for Ron Paul’s presidential campaign, said not only does he not support McCain, but he doesn’t think any Ron Paul supporters are going to support the Arizona Senator in November – not only in Idaho but across all of the mountain states where Paul has racked up double-digit support.

“I think Ron Paul supporters would rather vote for nobody,” Hop said. “They’re not going to say ‘Well I’m not going to vote for a Democrat so I’ll vote for McCain,’ that’s not the attitude that Paul’s supporters have. I don’t think they’ll be giving McCain their vote just because they feel like they have to vote for somebody.”

Both Mosman and Hop said one of the key features they like about Paul is that he is unwavering and everyone knows where he stands on the issues.

“He’s not wishy-washy about anything and that’s what people are looking for,” Hop said. “They want someone who’s strong and not willing to be pushed around or bought off by lobbyists.”