Time for your favorite school subject…

Math! Okay, so maybe not everyone loves math like I do. Maybe I don’t even love math. In fact, I don’t really like math. But I know when it can tell you useful things - like when you’re trying to figure out what kind of a chance Hillary has to beat Obama, or more importantly, what chance McCain has of winning in November (or Obama). Most other times, people like you and I (especially I) don’t really have a need for math. In fact, I’m pretty sure I’d be better off having taken years of home economics classes in high school rather than math, as I’m much better at figuring out statistics than I am cooking healthily, which in retrospect would be a much better addition to my life.

So let’s tackle the Hillary issue first. Let me lay it out for you nice and clean:

I assert that, barring some freakish scandal (and I mean like “Obama is a serial killer” scandal), Hillary Clinton will not be the nominee for the Democratic Party.

Okay I know that might hurt a little, it might surprise you and it might even enrage you. Don’t cry though, I’m coming to you with the facts, and sometimes the facts hurt. There is virtually no way for Hillary to come back. Obama is up by 155 pledged delegates and more than 600,000 popular votes. This is not counting four states which have not reported their popular votes – Washington State, Nevada, Iowa and Maine – three of which Obama won by sizeable margins, specifically Washington, where he took roughly twice as many votes as Clinton. With a good chance of somewhere around a million people voting, that’s going to be a few hundred thousand vote difference for Obama on top of his existing lead.

Hillary Clinton could win every one of the next contest, including ones where Obama is way ahead in the polls, by 20 percent and she would still not end up the party’s nominee. Still don’t believe me? Okay, well instead of going state-by-state, let’s look at the rest of the delegates that are left, not including superdelegates of course (we’ll get to them later). If Hillary wins every contest that is left by a 20 percent margin, she’ll gain roughly 122 delegates on Obama, still leaving him at least 30 pledged delegates in the lead. But this is not going to happen, again barring the admission of being a serial killer, since some of the states left include:

South Dakota (15 delegates) – Popular former Democratic Senator Tom Daschle supports him here and if they follow the lead of similar states – Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota – he should win with a landslide. 20-30 percent win for Obama.

North Carolina (115 delegates) – Most of the recent polls at www.realclearpolitics.com (where I get all of my numbers) have Obama up by double-digit leads – around 10-15 percent. But this is a region where he tends to do better than polling ever shows, just look at Virginia, South Carolina, Maryland, etc. Consider this Obama territory. 10-15 percent win for Obama.

Oregon (52 delegates) – Obama territory. Portland, like Seattle, joins the rest of the Pacific Northwest (Anchorage, Boise, Spokane, Eugene, Corvallis, etc.) in favoring Obama very heavily.   A few polls in Oregon have come out in the past month putting Obama up by double-digit margins. Plus I live in the Pacific Northwest and while I can’t explain it, this region loves Obama. 15-20 percent win for Obama.

Mississippi (33 delegates) – Polls vary with Obama leading 6-24 points, but let’s be serious – it’s going to follow Louisiana, Alabama and Georgia. 20-25 percent win for Obama.

Montana (16 delegates) – Mountain state, rural state, Obama territory. Conservative Democrats in these mountain states love Obama because he’s not all about big government programs. I’m not going to venture on a margin of victory here but he won Idaho by 60 percent, North Dakota by 50 percent, Washington State by 30 percent. 

That leaves Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Puerto Rico (caucus and overseas = favors Obama) and Pennsylvania. If Obama takes the states I predict he will by similar margins, he’s going to make her gains in the last big state – Pennsylvania – meaningless.  It will be Ohio/Texas versus Wyoming/Mississippi all over again (okay I know he hasn't won MS yet, but we're looking at a 20 point margin in the polls there favoring Obama).  Small states and big margins are just as good as big states and small margins.

All of this math depends on one core concept – that the superdelegates of the “democratic” Democratic Party will not override the popular vote and pledged delegate count in any given scenario. If there’s a rule for partisan politicians, it’s that the party needs to be unified at any expense. Overthrowing the popular vote would not be very unifying, so I’m going to go ahead and say that there is literally no way the superdelegates – a pile of party insiders – will throw the election. Hillary’s campaign is big into the “neither candidate can win without superdelegates” argument, which is true, but they won’t venture into whether superdelegates will favor the candidate with the pledged delegate and popular vote lead or the candidate with the nice pantsuits. You decide.

On to the general election. This is highly premature, but there are a few points worth illustrating that are fairly telling of the challenges McCain must overcome in the general election.

Georgia – Deep red state. Obama got about 700,000 votes, McCain got 300,000. Not a pretty picture for McCain.

Virginia – Light pink state. About 627,000 votes for Obama, 242,000 for McCain.

Florida – Light pink. McCain won, Obama didn’t even campaign here. Obama 576,000 votes, McCain 693,000 votes. A slight lead by McCain over a guy who never showed his face in the Sunshine State.

South Carolina – Deep red. 294,000 for Obama, 147,000 to McCain.

Texas – Deep red. McCain got more than 700,000, Obama got more than 1.3 million.