Last Tuesday, CBS News senior political correspondent Jeff Greenfield addressed a packed house in Atlanta at the Arthur M. Blank Family Foundation as part of its regular Speaker Series. With dozens of local college students -- largely from journalism and related departments -- in the audience by special invitation, Greenfield hoped to provide as fair an assessment of where the election has been, and where it was going, as can be hoped for in an age of spin and punditry. But he began with a disclaimer.

"The only thing that I tell you I'm not going to do -- I don't care, you can take me to Guantanamo, you can waterboard me -- I'm not going to predict," Greenfield vowed. "And the reason I'm not going to predict is, I don't know how. I'm not sure what it is about people in my business that convinces them they know how to do this. I think it's all the people who come up to us and say, 'So who's gonna win?' You get asked that enough, you think you actually know. But just remember something, back in 2000, we couldn't get it right even after everybody voted."

In a word, the story of the 2008 election thus far can be summed up as the story of "change," but Greenfield was not just favoring Democratic nominee Barack Obama and his campaign slogan.

"In some sense this entire election can be defined by the mantra of 'change' and how the campaigns, and the parties, and the primary process, and the general election has responded to it." And, it turns out, this has helped John McCain as much as, if not more than, Barack Obama.

While it is not always the case that the populace goes into an election "disgruntled" -- 1984, 1996, and even 2000 were cited as years in which the general mood of the country was reasonably good -- that is definitely the case this year. And that is the only reason, Greenfield argues, that the nomination of John McCain, who has broken with his party rather demonstrably on occasion, makes sense: "because there was no appetite for the next George W. Bush" and none of the other candidates really offered a break from that. "There is no way John McCain would have won except for the desire for change," he said.

By the same token, Obama pulled what Greenfield called "political judo," taking a weakness (being an unknown, short-term senator "with a name that sounds like the amalgamation of the two most hated people in America") and turning it into a strength. This gave him the opening to upset the expected "coronation" of Senator Clinton who, in spite of being the first serious female contender for the nomination, could not be the change agent simply because of her last name and its legacy.

The mantra was rekindled for a down-ticket nomination on August 29. "[Change also] explains -- in fact it is the only explanation -- not just for the pick of Governor Palin but for the astonishing impact it's had. Never have I seen a vice presidential pick change a campaign for the better," said Greenfield.

Greenfield starts from the premise that voters ultimately decide not based on studying long analyses of policy positions but from their gut. And at the end of a campaign that has to some extent been going on for almost two years, even a new face like Obama and a so-called maverick like McCain have become familiar old fixtures. The McCain campaign learned from Sen. Clinton's story that "experience" was not going to be the defining issue, so they could afford to take a chance on an energizing new candidate.

"Suddenly there's this new person [Gov. Sarah Palin] from a place where we haven't seen political leaders picked. Not just her gender, not just the fact that she is a classic, iconic small-town 'gal,' but she resonates with a very traditional American cultural preference: for the common sense, plain-spoken regular Joe or Jill who vanquishes the condescending, stuffed-shirt elitists. Like people who work in broadcast television." To put it more succinctly, Greenfield compared her to a right-wing Erin Brockovich.

Greenfield wanted to close with a look toward what happens after November 4, whoever triumphs. It seems that, unfortunately, that is the day the "change" mantra loses its power.

"It doesn't matter what [the victor wants] to do, because the political system doesn't permit it." A McCain administration would not be able to completely stack the federal bench with reactionary jurists nor extend the Bush tax cuts with a Congress that is likely going to be more Democratic than it is now. Similarly, with the 60-vote hurdle to accomplish anything in the Senate -- a majority the Democrats are not going to achieve -- Obama will not be able to get all of his costly new initiatives like a vastly expanded health care system, particularly given our existing and new deficits. The nation will not be able to make real progress, Greenfield stressed, if we cannot get past the "attitude posturing and 30-second television ads" that are the staple of modern campaigns.

"My hunch is," he concluded, "that the next president will leave the inaugural stand, go to the Oval Office, read the first memo...and demand a recount!"

To view the entire program -- which with Greenfield's engaging wit is far more entertaining than you might expect -- visit my Ustream.tv channel.