Purple is the new red in North Carolina.  An article in Newsweek Magazine recently listed N.C. as one of 14 “swing states” that could potentially switch its color in the general election this November.  If you are a North Carolinian, you probably know our state has bled red the last seven presidential elections.  Why then, would North Carolina go blue this year? 

According to the article, “the only way [Senator] Obama wins is through huge turnout from blacks and Research Triangle-area liberals matched by a significant drop in turnout for [Senator] McCain among conservatives.”  In fact, the article does not make it sound very likely the state will go blue even though it placed N.C. in the “purple” category.  As Newsweek puts it, we are in a state with large rural communities and two major military bases.

Chalk up one point for the Red Team.

However, the News and Observer recently pointed out some new information that might make the Newsweek article’s “blue scenario” more possible.  Led by a major registration drive by the Obama campaign, newly registered Democratic voters outnumber new Republican voters in North Carolina by a whopping 8:1.  Who are these new voters? Many of them are young folks from the Research Triangle-area, a region including three major universities (North Carolina State University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Duke University) and the state's two largest predominantly African American universities (North Carolina Central University and North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University). 

One point: Blue Team. 

In the 2004 presidential election, party affiliation apparently did not have a strong hold on a Carolinian’s selection.  According to the N.C. Board of Elections Web site, North Carolina contained 670,000 more registered Democrats than registered Republicans.  But 430,000 more voters chose the Republican presidential candidate, with 1.96 million voters selecting President George Bush and 1.53 million selecting Senator John Kerry.   

This information might seem like bad news for North Carolina Democrats, but sometimes statistics can be in the eye of the beholder.  If this tendency by Democrats and Unaffiliated voters to choose a Republican was not a statewide phenomenon, then Democrats could focus on increasing Democratic voter registration in the counties that typically vote with their party affiliation.  

I researched our state's county results from the 2004 election and analyzed 10 percent of North Carolina's 100 counties.  Three counties were randomly chosen from the Coastal Plain region, three were randomly chosen from the Mountain region, three were randomly chosen from the Piedmont and one was randomly chosen from all the counties not selected.

It turns out the “we-chose-a-Republican-even-though-our-area-is-Democratic” phenomenon occurred across the board in 2004.  While nine of the 10 counties had more registered Democrats, eight counties chose Bush as the victor and two counties were virtual ties.  In one virtual tie, Bush won by 187 votes in a county where Democrats outnumbered Republicans 6:1.  In the other virtual tie, Kerry won by a mere five votes in a county where Democrats outnumbered Republicans almost 2:1. 

Two points: Red Team.

I've listed the raw data for you at the bottom.