Though far less thoroughly reported, far more confusing, and far too complex to cover with any completeness, I can’t be the only person on the blogotubes who is turning to compulsive watching of Congressional races. Simply put, I think all of the first-bracket politico types (cf. “Theory of the Two Electorates” to see what I mean, or just translate to “high-information voters”) are getting frankly exhausted by the nonstop coverage exemplified by Wolf Blitzer’s Hydra-Headed Situation Entanglement and constant refreshing of The Page. Congressional races - especially in the era limited newsroom oxygen - seem almost quaint, homespun affairs. Additionally, we can ignore for a few moments Clinton Communication Director Howard Wolfson’s God-awful sweater. (In the interest of nonpartisanship I would mention Obama advisor David Axelrod’s Foxworthy ‘stache but I find it an oddly comforting television presence.) 

Occasionally, however, these contests do break through the media fog and into the world beyond the Cook Report. One such race this year was Illinois’ fourteenth Congressional district, previously held by wrestling coach Dennis Hastert (Republican Speaker of the House, as you may recall). It was heralded as something of a dark cloud for the GOP when Democrat Bill Foster won, beating his Republican challenger Jim Oberweis for a historically Republican seat. 

We’ll be having a few of those interesting ones as November nears, and the most visible to date is Mary Landrieu, who faced pretty tough fights in both 1996 and 2002, never winning by more than four percent. She’ll be facing Treasury Secretary John Kennedy as well as a potential flood of Republican money. The election, as seems to be the case every year since that Demographic Shift that Shall Not Be Named, will be decided at least partially on how powerful Landrieu’s Orleans Parish base remains.

Elsewhere, there will be several House races resulting from vacancies. The most prominent – but probably least competitive – is Governor Bobby Jindal’s vacated first district seat in the New Orleans suburbs. It has been solidly Republican for the past thirty years, so it seems unlikely that University of New Orleans professor Gilda Reed can change that to a Democratic seat, lovely photo of the Causeway notwithstanding. However, the fourth district seat (Shreveport and environs in the northwest of the state) has a chance to be quite competitive – with law-and-order Democratic District Attorney Paul Carmouche entering the race against trucking executive Chris Gorman. Finally, the sixth district (covering Baton Rouge and many river parishes) looks to be both confusing and, apparently, a toss-up. I would explain it, but in typical fashion, there appear to be six or so candidates running, including one from the Constitution Party, and I haven’t got the will to get into all that.

Whether or not my ongoing theory that Louisiana makes a pretty solid bellwether has a shred of credibility, there are a strange number of competitive – or potentially competitive – races this year. The state’s makeup includes lots of very conservative voters with your typical Democratic urban strongholds as well as a fair number of Blue Dog Democrats, allowing for a micro-level view into similar-looking states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. An interesting point to watch will be the margin in the first district, where Democrats outnumber Republicans in voter registration, but where a Democrat hasn’t won since 1977. The special election is May 5th, so we ultimately won’t need to wait too long to see what, if anything, this open race portends.

And, at least, it’s not this stuff.