This past week saw the beginning stages of what could be a knock-down, drag-out fight between presidential contenders Sen. Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic candidate, and Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican candidate. What had been a clean, respectful election turned nasty when McCain released a new ad comparing the Illinois Senator’s popularity and support to a media fascination with a teen pop star. Not only did this understandably upset Obama, but it also inadvertently put the kibosh on the heretofore unannounced write-in campaign that Britney Spears was hoping to run.
As Obama surely prepares a counter offensive, it’s clear that the unspoken ceasefire between the two candidates has come to an abrupt end – but as these two giants duke it out in the center ring, two other contenders are attempting to turn the two-man brawl into a four-man battle royale – Bob Barr and Ralph Nader, third-party hopefuls for the office of the president, are rushing to get their names on the ballots of states across America.
West Virginia’s ballot access deadline fell this morning, August 1. In order to make it on the ballot, one must provide 15,118 signatures of registered voters to the Secretary of State by this deadline.
Ralph Nader, an Independent candidate who was on the ballot for the Green Party in the 2000 election (and as an independent in 2004), has supposedly passed that total with a few thousand signatures to spare. Though nothing official will likely be known before early next week, it’s widely assumed that Nader’s name will show up on the ballot come November.
Unfortunately for his supporters, not all states were as receptive as West Virginia to including Nader in the horse race – at this time, only 18 states have collected enough signatures, and three others are expected to hold extensive write-in campaigns. Note that there are still many states that have yet to reach their deadline, so it’s likely that Nader could increase his chances as we crawl closer to November.
Nader’s position in the races he’s been involved with during his career has been that of a pot-stirrer – he’s often charged with taking votes that would have otherwise been rewarded to Democrats, like in the 2000 presidential election. Many people accuse Nader for stealing votes, especially in the uber-contested Florida, from Gore, which could have led to a Democratic victory in 2000. Early speculation for this election has predicted that in this election, Nader could take 8 to 10 percent of the popular vote, many of which would otherwise go to Obama.
Libertarian contender Bob Barr is rumored to have made it over the 15,118 signature hump, according to early reports from his supporters. Though we’ve yet to hear anything official from the Secretary of State, Bob Barr’s supporters will hold a media briefing sometime today at the state capital to announce whether or not Barr will be on the ballot.
Just as Nader is expected to siphon some of the Democratic vote, Barr is expected to take away from the Republican party. According to a Rasmussen survey, Barr could pick up 7 percent of the Republican vote, and 5 percent of the Democratic vote in the election. This could be due to Barr’s relatively conservative ideals, or his former affiliation with the Republican party.
As optimistic as these two men and their campaign staffs are, one can’t ignore the fact that no political analysts or electoral soothsayers have predicted a Nader or Barr victory this November. Third-party candidates don’t exactly have a sterling track record when it comes to presidential election victories. Theodore Roosevelt won 27 percent of the popular vote in the 1912 election under the “Bull Moose Party” – that’s about the largest victory ever claimed by a third-party candidate in a presidential election.
Why, then, are these two men expected to take away such a large portion of the expected voter turnout this year? Why would anyone cast their votes for a losing horse? I’ll be talking to people about their third-party preferences next week to find out exactly why voters are taking the road less travelled in the 2008 presidential election.