The more I read about Pakistan the more I am becoming deeply concerned about a major conflict there very soon... one that rips the country apart and will lead to a prolonged war. And no, this does not deal with Kashmir or the stuff that's currently in the news about Musharraf's election. It is much bigger than that.

The war in Afghanistan has caused the Al Qaeda and Taliban organizations to jump across the border and entrench themselves in Pakistan. Pakistan, unfortunately, has a social climate that is much more hospitable to Al Qaeda and the Taliban than Afghanistan had (see bottom for explanation). What they are doing is terrifying. Let me start by giving a little background…

Pakistan was founded in 1947 and created as a nation where religion and politics were separated. While the nation was created as a Muslim nation, the population was free to practice the religion as they chose to. The form of Islam that they practiced was tolerant and moderate. This has changed, especially since 1979. This was the year when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan. Pakistan was a strong supporter of the Afghan resistance and quickly received a huge amount of aid from the US and Saudi Arabia to fight the Soviets. General Zia, the Pakistani leader, used this as an opportunity to change Pakistan into a strict Islamic society. The mujahedeen fighters he sent into Afghanistan were indoctrinated with a very radical Islamic ideology, which made them fiercer fighters because they lost their fear of death. It was an ideology incorporated into thousands of Madrassas (religious schools) along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The radicals coming out of these schools were frequently at odds with the general population, the government and the army. Eastern Pakistan in particular rejected it. Unfortunately, opponents had a hard time curbing the influence. The Madrassas were often located in poor, undeveloped areas and offered free education. It was the most attractive option for families looking to educate their children (Public schools can be gutted, have no textbooks and be tens of miles away). The ideology became firmly entrenched despite the fact that its adherents were a minority of the population.

Such conditions have set the country up for disaster now that Al Qaeda and the Taliban have moved in. Al Qaeda in particular has caused huge troubles. It has declared jihad against the supposedly un-Islamic government and has been going on a determined campaign to spread the ideology. Worryingly, they have been relatively successful snuffing out opposing ideologies (by harassing teachers and schools that teach anything ‘un-Islamic’) and bringing fundamentalist Islam to eastern Pakistan. Pakistan has extremely bad corruption, political intimidation and poverty so there has been a broad audience for the ‘new direction’ that the radical Islamic groups preach. The Pakistani Government has fought both the Taliban and Al Qaeda since 911, but both groups have grown in size, regrouped and defended themselves so well that the government had to give up and leave the strongholds alone. I am deeply worried about this. It indicates that the government may be losing control of the country and may be defeated by the Taliban or Al Qaeda if a civil war starts. Granted there is currently no civil war there right now, but don’t be fooled. Recent history is littered with examples of radical groups coming to power in the Middle East... and tensions are most definately building. Pakistan is going to be a nightmare if the government falls. It is the sixth most populous country in the world and has a population FIVE TIMES that of Afghanistan and Iraq. It also has nuclear weapons sites scattered across the country, so the US will have to intervene if the government is challenged. I can’t even imagine the problems that this will cause.

*note: The Taliban first got into power because they promised the Afghan population that they were going to restore peace and order and overthrow two fighting warlords (Mossaud and Hekmatyar) whose territory was lawless and corrupt. However, the Taliban enforced Islamic Sharia Law after they established control and became very unpopular with the population. Pakistan, by contrast, has a population which is much more fundamentalist and is more sympathetic to the Taliban’s ideas. Many do support Sharia Law.